SCRHA Members Hear ‘State of the Apartment Industry’ at EXPO

At SCRHA’s Rental Housing Conference & EXPO on February 11, we heard from Jordan Brooks, a nationally recognized expert in rental housing. His “State of the Apartment Industry” keynote session was well attended at the annual event, which was held at the Town & Country Resort in San Diego.

Brooks is the Director of Market Analytics at ALN Apartment Data, where he tracks apartment performance across the country every day and works directly with operators and investors analyzing market data. He walked us through what’s happening nationally and, more importantly, what it means for owners here in San Diego County.

The big national story over the past few years has been new construction, Brooks said. The country added a huge number of new apartment units between 2022 and 2024 – far more than were absorbed by renters, Brooks said. That oversupply pushed down occupancy and slowed rent growth.

Locally, San Diego has felt supply pressure too, though not as dramatically as some markets, Brooks said. From 2022 through 2025, about 19,800 new units were delivered in the greater San Diego area, but only about 5,300 were absorbed. In simple terms: we built a lot more than the market could immediately fill.

The good news is that occupancy has improved.

• As of January 2026, overall occupancy in the Greater San Diego region sits around 91%, with stabilized properties closer to 95%, which is slightly stronger than national averages.
• Demand improved in 2025 and early 2026 has started on a positive note.

Rent growth, however, has been flat, Brooks said.

• In 2025, effective rent growth locally was basically zero, underperforming the national average.
• That said, rents today are still roughly $700 per month higher than they were in 2020.

So while increases have slowed, base rents remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Many properties are offering concessions.

• About 1 out of every 5 conventional properties in the region is offering some type of lease concession. That’s up sharply from just a few years ago.

The key question for 2026 is whether demand will remain strong enough for operators to reduce concessions and see real rent growth return.

Looking ahead, around 9,000 units are still under construction locally. Deliveries are expected to decline in 2026 compared to last year’s peak, but new supply will continue to impact performance. Much of that supply remains concentrated in Downtown, Kearny Mesa/Mission Gorge, Chula Vista, Uptown/Old Town, and Sorrento Mesa/Miramar.

Bottom line: the market is stabilizing compared to the last few years, but supply remains a major factor. Demand is improving, occupancy is better, but rent growth will depend on how quickly the market can work through new units, and whether operators can pull back on concessions.

We appreciate Brooks bringing clear, data-driven insight to our members at this year’s Rental Housing Conference & EXPO.